A couple of days ago I did a year-end report on single family market activity. This is a corresponding report for condominiums in the core area of Victoria (defined as (Victoria, Oak Bay, Esquimalt, View Royal, and Saanich). It follows essentially the same format as my report on Victoria condo properties for end-November.
Chart 1 shows cumulative listings and sales for the past two years: there are no big surprises here compared with last month: both the 12-month figure for listings and sales drifted slightly lower (sales, to 1,173 from 1,196; and listings to 1,636 to 1,653) from a month earlier). Chart 2 compares the most recent three month totals with the corresponding figures for the previous two years.
Chart 3 demonstrates that the year-over-year increase in listings (up 227 or about 11% from 2007) and decrease in sales (down 463 or about 28% from 2007) was not a sudden result – these changes accumulated progressively and fairly steadily throughout the year. (As we’ll see below, price changes followed these changes in volumes, but not immediately.)
Chart 4 below charts monthly listings and sales for the past 24 months. Listings and sales both followed their usual
seasonal decline in December.
Turning now to pricing, Charts 5 and 6 depict median and average sale prices, both as a montlhy figure, and as a three month rolling average of monthly figures. The three month rolling averages remove some of the distraction/distortion caused by monthly figures, which are subject to wide swings depending on what particular homes were on the market that month.
If you’ve seen any of my earlier Reports, you will know why I prefer median values to averages. But just in case you are new here, please check Median Home Values Explained.
As noted above, the increase in listings and decrease in sales didn’t seem to affect median sale prices until about May, 2008, as you can see from Chart 5 (average prices were affected earlier, in the February/March time frame). Those trends continue. The downward price spike in November was confined to that month, and the monthly figure has bounced back a bit in December.
The three-month rolling median selling price dropped from its high of $292,400 in May to $257,600 in December – that is about 11.9%.
The three-month rolling average selling price dropped from its high of $325,900 in February to $276,400 in December, representing a decline of about 14.7%.
The final four charts look for any sign of correlation between other statistical data which could potentially help to identify changes in trends.
From about April or May 2008, the general slope of all three graphs is roughly consistent with the price trends for the same time period. Beyond that, I don’t gain much from these Charts.
In summary, the progression downward in terms of sales volumes and selling prices continues for used condominiums, much as it has for pre-owned single family homes in the core area of Victoria. Although I haven’t been charting it for condominium properties, I note that the average selling price in December dipped below the average assessed value for the same period – that hasn’t happened yet for single family homes.
here may be a hint, as I suspect is the case for single family homes, of a growing acceptance on the part of owners that the market has changed. What makes me think that? It’s because the average dollar value of price reductions seems to be leveling off or even dipping a little at the moment, while at the same time the number of reductions continues to increase and sale prices decline. What say you?
I appreciate feedback. If you have questions, or better yet, suggestions, please let me know.
Bye for now,
...Victoria's blogging real estate professional.
Tags: Median property values, Victoria Condos, Victoria Home Market Report, Victoria Property Values
