This month I made a minor correction in how I go about searching for pre-owned condominium properties. As a result, there may be a minor disconnect with earlier monthly reports. For example, were I to go back to last month, my revised methodology would lead to 158 condo listings versus the 164 I reported. A similar result would likely follow for sales. I’m not masochistic, so I haven’t gone back to reconcile all prior reports.
So in the result, if you are a nut for detail you may be left scratching your head over some seeming inconsistencies with earlier reports. I apologize – it’s likely due to what I would call ‘fine tuning’ of my search parameters. The differences will become largely irrelevant by next month next month.
Now, to begin.
Chart 1 collects 12 month cumulative listings and sales for the past two years: one year ago annual listings totaled 2,171, and to the end of February 2009 were up by a small margin to about 2,251. Annual sales continue moving in the opposite direction: the most recent 12 month period was 1,122 sales versus 1,585 one year earlier.
The three month comparisons shown in Chart 2 show listings are off by approximately 17% from the same period last year, but are virtually identical to where they were two years earlier. Last year saw a dramatic spike in listings beginning in January, and so was a bit of an aberration. Sales, however, reflect the slowing market, and are down 31% compared with third quarter last year and by 46% from two years ago. We will need to keep an eye on these figures as we go forward.
Could there be some positive signs hiding in Chart 3? I think so. It shows that the annualized spread between listings and sales stopped increasing in December, didn’t change significaly in January, and showed a definite decrease in February. While the gap is still quite wide (1,129 versus 617 a year earlier), the fact remains that it hasn’t increased for three months, and this month actually decreased.
Chart 4 is a little wacky this month due to my fiddling with search criteria. Nevertheless, it is useful in that it shows the ratio of sales to listings increasing for the month and for the three month rolling average.
Now let’s look at pricing.
The three-month rolling median selling price up up marginally to $252,600 (of $292,400 in May) while the monthly figure was down about $7000. Now the decline from the May 2008 high of $292,400 is around 13.6%.
The three-month rolling average selling price picked up a bit (going to $276,900 from $268,900), even as the monthly value declined marginally. From it’s February 2008 high, the three month rolling figure is now down by by about 16.5% (versus 17.5% last month).
Finally, let’s wrap up with four charts to look for any indication of changes in trend direction.
Although I only recently began to track assessed value to compare that figure with average selling prices (and I’s still not charting it), Feburary saw further downward movement in this ratio. In other words, the average selling-to-assessed value in February dipped to .97 from .99 a month earlier.
In summary, it seems to me the figures and charts are sending mixed signals, but that primarily, it is signaling that we have a way to go before the condo market stabilizes. The most positive note relates to the sales to listing ratio, which is up slightly, and the fact that the annualized gap between listings and sales is now actually starting to shrink.
Perhaps it’s also a good sign that the value of price reductions has leveled out and is even showing signs of decline. The same can’t be said for the volume of price reductions. Once that number shows clear signs of trending down, it will signal a more general acceptance by owners that the market has changed, and a willingness to list their properties at more realistic prices. But we’re not there yet.
While the three month rolling averages for both median and average selling prices moved upward slightly, monthly figures went in the opposite direction and the monthly ratio of sale price to assessed value declined about 2%.
Based on these things, I would say that overall the condo market today is showing signs of gaining strength.
I appreciate feedback. If you have questions, or better yet, suggestions, please let me know.
Bye for now,
...Victoria's blogging real estate professional.
Tags: Victoria Home Market Report, Victoria Property Values, Victoria Real Estate
