Chart 1 collects 12 month cumulative listings and sales for the past two years: one year ago annual listings totaled 2,112, and to the end of January 2009 were up by a small margin to about 2,304. Annual sales on the other hand continued to travel in the opposite direction: the recent total was 1,157, while the figure for one year earlier was 1,623.
Chart 2 compares the most recent three month totals with the corresponding figures for the previous two years. Only minor changes are noted from these totals compared with those reported in December.
Chart 3 tracks a rolling 12 month total of listings and sales. This chart shows that the annualized spread between listings and sales ran up quite quickly, going from about 436 in November 2007 (off the chart) to about 1,100 by October 2008. But during the past four months, that spread has increased by only a small margin and in fact has been stable the last two months, at around 1,150.
Chart 4 below charts monthly listings and sales for the past 24 months. Listings took a nice bounce upward in January, and while sales moved in the same direction, the ratio of sales to listings decreased somewhat for the month.
As to pricing, Charts 5 and 6 track median and average sale prices.
The three-month rolling median selling price dropped from its high of $292,400 in May to $250,400 in January. Although that is a drop of about 11.9%, the chart shows a significant downward spike in November which continues to affect the three month rolling figure. In the absence of that downward spike, the current three month figure would likely be closer to its value somewhere between November and December.
The three-month rolling average selling price continued do sag, although just as with the median values, the monthly figure was up. From it’s high in February 2008, the three month rolling figure is off by about 17.5%. However, the change in median value is likely more indicative of the change in the market.
As usual, the next four charts examine various data, looking for signs of anything which could potentially help to identify changes in trends.
One other item which I haven’t been tracking is the ratio of average selling price to assessed value. Last month the average dipped below the average assessed value for the same period. This month it continues to sit at about 99% – that is, on average, pre-owned condos sold for 1% less than assessed value in January.
In summary, are there any conclusions to be drawn from these charts? There are some positives and some negatives.
On the positive side, while rolling prices continue to trend downward, that trend is a bit of a divergence from monthly values. The spread between the 12 month totals of listings and sales has also leveled off during the past three to four months, and both the number and value of price reductions seems to have leveled out a bit.
On the other hand, average days on market continues to slowly trend upward, and the ratio of ’solds’ to ‘listeds’ was not favourable in January.
I appreciate feedback. If you have questions, or better yet, suggestions, please let me know.
Bye for now,
...Victoria's blogging real estate professional.
Tags: Victoria Condos, Victoria Home Market Report, Victoria Property Values, Victoria Real Estate
