If you follow reports in the Victoria Times Colonist you may have noticed a few days ago that some real estate agents were reporting activity seems to be increasing. It will be interesting to see whether that anecdotal evidence has actually resulted in any measurable marketplace changes yet.
Today’s report covers two years, ending January 31, 2009, and as usual, covers used homes located in the core area of Victoria (Victoria, Oak Bay, Esquimalt, View Royal, and Saanich).
The year-to-year trend continues – yearly listings for 12 months ending January 2009 are up by a small amount from the year ending January 2008 (up to 3,606 from 3,401). Single month listings for January 2008 were down from January 2008 by a count of by about 60, a drop of about 23%. But if you remember, single month sales in January 2008 were UP over the previous year’s figure of 228, so this year seems to be off to a moderate start on the listings side of the equation.
As to sales, annual sales are down, dropping to 1,814 from 2,424 for the earlier 12 months (ending January 2008). The rate of change doesn’t seem to be accelerating, or deccelerating for that matter. Figures are summarized in the Year Over Year Comparison (Chart 1) and the Three Month Comparison Charts (Chart 2), below.
Chart 3 lays out the cumulative 12-month listings and sales for each month during the past year. It’s interesting. One year ago, the monthly spread between listings and sales was 974. That figure increased every single month, without exception, to December 2008 when it reached 1,815. In January, the spread lessened by a small margin, declining to 1,792.
Chart 4 tracks monthly listings and sales for two years. Listings are up as one would anticipate following a very quiet December, but I was guessing there would have been a few more. My thinking was that because it seemed that quite a few people took their listings off the market in the fall, deciding instead to wait to relist in the spring. Although it’s a spring-like day today, maybe we haven’t yet seen those listings re-enter the market just yet.
As to sales, the number has stopped its downward slide and in fact was up about 33%. But, that is disproportionately low in comparison with the increase in listings – the ratio of ’solds’ to ‘listeds’ for the month dropped to about .43 from about .66 the previous month.
The next three charts involve prices, all measured monthly as well as a three month rolling average. Chart 5 shows median selling price while Chart 6 depicts average prices. And finally, Chart 7 compares average selling prices with assessed values for the corresponding period.
The three month median price rolling average dropped to $505,300 in January, continuing it’s downward path from its high in the spring last year. recent high of $589,900 in May – it’s off by about 14.2%.
The three month rolling value of the average selling price dropped was pretty well unchanged at $563,600 ($561,900 last month) in January. It’s drop from spring highs remains at about 15%.
chart 7 shows that after three months of level values for the monthly sold-to-assessed multiple, January saw it descend for the first time below a level of 1.0, reaching 0.98. The three month rolling average for this ratio is now down to 1.01. (Remember, this year the benchmark ‘assessed’ value used for comparison in this chart remains unchanged, due to the BC Government’s decision to use last year’s assessed value for 2009 too.)
The final four graphs are based on statistics which may help gain further insight into market performance and trends.
The final three charts show a strong correlation: since March 2008, they all indicate a trend toward a buyer’s market.
December saw a sharp increase in the percentage of price reductions, a number that decreased in January. Nevertheless, the three month rolling average for this figure show a clear trend to more price reductions.
Last month I mentioned that the increase in the percentage of price reductions might suggest the possibility of a changing sellers’ mindset, by which I meant an increasing acceptance by owners that the goal posts have moved to buyer market territory. That may be, but the decline this month in the ’sold-to-listed’ ratio may be suggesting that buyers are betting the market is going to decline further.
In summary, January’s charts demonstrate no evidence to suggest the downward trends in prices and buyer reluctance have changed. Owners may be accepting the market has fallen, while buyers are expecting it to fall further. But perhaps January’s decline in the spread between cumulative listings and sales is an early sign of a balanced market ahead.
Bye for now,
...Victoria's blogging real estate professional.
Tags: Victoria Home Market Report, Victoria Property Values, Victoria Real Estate
